Episode 53

Shane Mercer [00:00:00]:

Hey. I looked at my phone, and I thought so and so was going to win tonight. You know? Right? And that's what that's what bettors do right?

Shane Mercer [00:00:19]:

Hello, and welcome to another episode of Behind the Lines, the only sports betting podcast, purifying the sports betting industry. How do we do it? Well, we teach you about all the tricks and traps that the sportsbooks try to set and help you navigate this so that you can make more money over time or perhaps at least at the very minimum lose less. Alright. On today's show, we're talking about Apple Sports. We gave it a try. We'll give you a review on that. We've got students trying to pay off their loans by sports betting. We'll talk about that.

Shane Mercer [00:00:47]:

We were gonna answer some some common questions for you, perhaps toward towards the end of the show, and it was a really big weekend at inplayLIVE. And if you wanna see what inplayLIVE is all about on the inside, we have a promo code for you that is 'BEHINDTHELINES', all caps. I'm your host, Shane Mercer. That guy over there, Andrew Pace, founder of inplayLIVE. And, Pace, why don't we just start off? You know, we record this on a Monday, and we're coming off a really big weekend. Why don't we kick things off there? What a monster on Saturday.

Andrew Pace [00:01:19]:

Yeah. It was a lot of fun. We, broke our single day, record for what we post on our tracker, which are the calls that we make. So it's really nice to to hit a new new new high there, and, hopefully, the members of inplayLIVE got to see some nice returns.

Shane Mercer [00:01:39]:

I I think they did. Yeah. 13 units on Saturday. That that's really, really solid. And, a big shout out to a guy we've had on the show many times, the golden goose, Kenny Huber. Man, that guy went off on Saturday. You know, I I I was looking at that tracker. Right? Because as you mentioned, you know, we we track everything, and it's out there.

Shane Mercer [00:01:59]:

I was taking a look at it. He did not miss 7 and o for a profit of 8 units. Kenny alone, shout out to the Golden Goose. Nice work, buddy.

Andrew Pace [00:02:07]:

Yeah. Yeah. And, he I mean, sometimes you don't think that that guy's actually real. Like, he's he's it's he's just such a legend, but, like, I I guess a lot of people on stream didn't know he wasn't on camera, so he's just on audio the whole time. But the reason for that was because he was betting using his Vision Pro. And so he's he's wagering using his VisionPRO, and Zoom didn't allow for that AI version of him to go on Zoom. He he was I guess he had an issue with that, so he stayed muted the whole day. And then there's a couple times where he came on, and you just saw him in in the goggles.

Andrew Pace [00:02:46]:

And the reason why he was using the Vision Pro was because he wasn't at home. So he was he kinda creates a bedding setup inside of the Apple Vision Pro and uses that as his setup. But, unfortunately, he left us, partway through the day on Saturday because he got motion sick from bedding with the vision pro all day. So he had a hell of a day, but, shows us there's still room for improvement because he he only wagered for half of the day because, yeah, he he got sick. So he actually ended up, I think, like, taking some gravel or something and actually sleeping for the rest of the day, and then, like, woke back up at, like, I don't know, like, 10 or 11 PM and missed the second half of the day. But, yeah, hell of a day on Saturday and a lot of fun.

Shane Mercer [00:03:29]:

Yeah. Yeah. It was pretty pretty awesome to to sort of watch and and and be a part of and and, you know, benefit from. And, yeah, I can only imagine, you know, you got those headsets on. For that amount of time, it's it's not gonna be good for you. I just I don't know. Personally, I I don't I don't I don't think it's something I'd even wanna try. I've used those BR goggles before in the past.

Shane Mercer [00:03:47]:

And, yeah, very quickly do I feel disoriented and I start to not feel so good. Headache sets in. It's like, no. No. And I that's the last thing I think you'd want while you're trying to bet on sports bet on sports live. You you definitely don't wanna feel that way.

Andrew Pace [00:04:00]:

Well, I think I think, you can have it so that you can see. It's like you see through. Mhmm. The which it's not actually that. It's it's recording your room and then playing it back to you in real time. But he didn't do that. He intentionally set his background as the moon.

Shane Mercer [00:04:22]:

Which Maybe he was just a little more disorienting.

Andrew Pace [00:04:25]:

Yeah. I'm all for it. I'm all for it. Like, if, you know, if he wants to take us to the moon with him, you know, with his wager calls and sets the moon as the background, but I guess I'm getting at. I don't think that helped with the, the motion sickness betting throughout the day.

Shane Mercer [00:04:37]:

So Yeah. Yeah. And and for everybody out there that's that's not a part of the inplayLIVE community, and you're thinking, well, 13 units. Woah. This guy went, you know, 7 and o and 8 units. How did he do it? Well, we're betting on college basketball because guess what? It's March. And, college basketball is a huge, huge focus at Imply Live. And, again, if you're interested in joining and learning and seeing what we're doing, you got that promo code that I mentioned off the top of the show BEHINDTHELINES, all caps.

Shane Mercer [00:05:01]:

And, yeah, it's just that really, really busy time of year. And there we go. Pace, this is back. 2nd time that we're bringing this back. If you're listening and you're not watching on on YouTube, we are bringing up the inplayLIVE NC double a conference tournament schedule along with a tracker that'll show cumulative units 1. Pesa, tell tell the people how this works.

Andrew Pace [00:05:26]:

Yeah. Well, the first thing I would say is this is the schedule of the conference tournaments, and we're shooting this on a Monday. So when you're watching this on Wednesday, already 2 days of conference tournaments will be behind us. Why do I like this, and why do I use it personally? I think that's probably the the main question here is, you know, tonight we got a whole series of college basketball games on, but 2 of them are actual conference games. And why is that important? It's because whoever loses, these games are most likely out of, it'll be their last game of the season. So they won't be in the March Madness tournament. The winners of these tournaments guarantee a spot, in in the March Madness tournament itself. So, all these times are listed in eastern time, But I know this now.

Andrew Pace [00:06:13]:

These two games right here for tonight, again, we're filming on a on a Monday. I I know that these are elimination games. So from a betting standpoint and a scheduling standpoint, I know that these are games that I don't wanna miss. And I think that that's extremely powerful, especially this week where we have some of the conference some of the games are conference tournaments, and some of the games are still regular season. Whereas next week, all of the games will be conference tournaments if we scroll down to that for for more prominent conferences, like the ACC and the big twelve and the big ten. So, this is a layout of every single conference tournament game, and you can open up this page. You can sit down with your spouse. You can, sit down with your friends.

Andrew Pace [00:04:40]:

You can sit down with it your yourself and go, okay. You can set alarms for when you wanna watch these games or wager on them or whatever it is, and actually schedule, this next month. And when it comes to March Madness specifically, obviously, we had a a great guest talking about the tournament on with us, last week. I I think, you know, these next few weeks are mayhem from a betting standpoint because you'll see some of these games are starting at 11 AM EST. That means that, there's games running all the way until tip-off here, 11:30 PM EST. You know, game's running really all day. And and, if you are a successful sports bettor, you you definitely wanna, you know, be be prepared for these next few weeks as as, as these games come through. So this is a great resource to be able to do that.

Andrew Pace [00:07:43]:

And, as Shane alluded to, cumulative units 1, on the conference tournament will be will be added. And then, the March Madness schedule, once that's all settled and sorted, will be added to this as well. And it's a late start this year. So, you know, previous years, at this point, the conference tournaments, were well underway if not finished already. And, yeah, the the tournament itself will will go well into April this year.

Shane Mercer [00:08:09]:

Yeah. Yeah. I think it starts, the week of where the days are are kind of you know, we get those planned games, I think, on, like, 19th, 20th, and and then the real, tournament, I think, kicks off on the 21st this year. So it's, it it's a little bit later than than normal. And I'm glad you brought up, our guest from last week. If you guys haven't had a chance to listen to that show and you really wanna you're a big fan of college basketball and you wanna learn more, listen to that episode from last week. Go back, with with Ryan Hammer and the the trapezoid of excellence. Super cool.

Shane Mercer [00:08:37]:

What what he's got going on there. And, again, I I'm I'm looking forward to to sort of using some of his, content as I kind of, build my brackets later, in into the in in the month. But, a pretty awesome stuff, all around there. And as you mentioned too, looking through that schedule, you can see that things really kind of pick up towards the end of this week. So, you know, this episode coming out on a Wednesday, have a look here. There's a lot of games on Wednesday. Same thing Thursday, and and a lot of these are conference games, and they're not necessarily all kind of in the evening. You know, there's a lot of games that take place during the day.

Shane Mercer [00:09:14]:

You know, so so, you know, you got work to do. A lot of people out there got got their jobs and stuff like that. So, you know, if you wanna find a way to kinda manage it all, just that that that schedule can really, really help you out, as you sort of prioritize what games will matter most and and where you might be able to identify the most value.

Andrew Pace [00:09:33]:

Yeah. All you have to do there, guys, if you're if you're not on watching us, is go to imply live.comforward/ncaa, and that schedule will pop up.

Shane Mercer [00:09:42]:

Yeah. Alright. Well, as we sort of talk about these things, we we talked about the Apple Vision, Pro, and and we're talking about tools. I guess now is a good time to bring up Apple Sports, which we talked about last week on the show. And and, you know, they've launched this. I downloaded it. I've taken a look. It's, somewhat underwhelming, I think, so far.

Andrew Pace [00:10:05]:

Yeah. So, like, just just from, like, a a review standpoint and why I would use an app like this is to get the fastest information as I, like, as I possibly can. The the, I guess, the claims to the app, sound greater than the actual execution at this stage. So, you're running about 5 seconds to 7 seconds behind the books and other apps. So the score is quicker than this, right now. One of the things I do really like about the app is just the visuals of it all. I personally have it meshed where you select leagues and not teams. Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:10:44]:

And it gives me a really nice representation of what I'm gonna be betting on that night, and that is really helpful for me. So from the standpoint of organization, if you go into a sports book, you can favorite some things sometimes. But at the end of the day, I like that I can see what games are coming in, for any end of game strategies using this regardless of the league that they're in. So I've got an NBA game coming in. I've got a college basketball game coming in. I've got an NHL game coming in, and I've got it organized nicely there. That's almost like a a nice little queue of of what's what's coming through the pipeline. And and also another nice feature of that is I as I look at today's schedule and the way that I have it organized is that regardless of the sport, this is my queue of games today, and I can scroll and see see the ones that I'm gonna be most focused on.

Andrew Pace [00:11:41]:

So I like the way that it organizes things. But from the standpoint of actually using it once the games are on, it's not the fastest. And and I'm still hopeful is what I would say. But for for now, I think there's a place for it, but it's not necessarily, like, your primary app for live information.

Shane Mercer [00:11:58]:

Yeah. You know, I'm kind of using it the exact same way as you are where I've got my leagues, and then I've got them all sort of sorted out here. And, but the the thing that I would say that that kind of it's like, okay. It's great. Now I've got them all together. I've got everything here, but, man, it's it's it's a lot. It's a lot. You know? It's like because I've got I've got men's college hoops.

Shane Mercer [00:12:20]:

I've got women's college hoops, which I've talked to it a lot on show. I'm a big women's college hoops guy. So those alone are a ton of games. And then I add in the NBA and I add in the NHL. And now it's like, I've got all these games here. But it does allow me to kind of really kinda look and say, okay. At this time, this game begins or at this time, this slate of games begin, and I know that those games are gonna end around such and such time where I will be dialed into them. So in in that sense, it's helpful.

Shane Mercer [00:12:48]:

But monitoring games live, it's not there yet. I mean, it's not something

Andrew Pace [00:07:42]:

that It it feels like a like, almost like a kid's project right now that they did for, like, a programming class where it looks really good, but from the standpoint of overall functionality of what we would want as professional bettors, It's it's a step it's it's kinda like another tool you can use, but it's it's just not there yet.

Shane Mercer [00:13:11]:

Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:13:11]:

So, hopefully, Apple steps it up.

Shane Mercer [00:13:14]:

Okay. Moving on. There's an article that came out in The Wall Street Journal, and we always wanna talk about, you know, coverage of the industry and and kind of get into to what's happening out there and and how people are, moving through the industry or what's taking place and and kind of, you know, issues that pop up. And there's couple of things that that kind of happened over this past week that that are somewhat connected. But, I'll start off just, by sharing, my screen here and bringing up, this, article that was actually posted in our Discord, and it's, in the Wall Street Journal. Caitlin Rohn is the, journalist that that wrote this, and she kind of profiles a student. But the idea here is students, hail Mary, play to repay loans, sports bets. So in the US, there was some loan forgiveness conversations that were taking place when it came to student loans, and it turns out, hey.

Shane Mercer [00:14:03]:

Guess what? You're gonna have to pay all that money that you took out in loans. It is going to happen. And for a lot of students in the US, especially, less so in Canada, but it is still very relevant for Canadians because, you know, it it still costs a lot of money to go to school in Canada, but it costs a lot more a lot more to go to school in the United States. And some of these loans are just massive. And so it starts off, you know, by profiling this one guy who was hoping to pay off his $50,000, student loan deck. He created a whole TikTok to kind of document his journey as, you know, we all do these days. Right? A lot of young people posting on social media and and, you know, they have a plan, and it's like, let me share this plan with the world and document my journey. Well, you know, he had this whole plan to pay off his student loan, you know, building some monster parlays and and that kind of thing.

Shane Mercer [00:14:51]:

Long story short, guess what? It didn't work. But it it highlights this bigger issue of all of these students out there. They're racking up a ton of debt, and that is coinciding now with the emergence and the this growing industry of sports betting. And, again, you know, we talk a lot about what we see on social media. If you are interested in sports in any way, shape, or form, you are bombarded with sports betting, either through tipsters, influencers. The advertisements are everywhere. So, you know, for a young person out there that is saddled with all of this debt, they're wondering, jeez. You know, my my my liberal arts degree isn't going to pay off for me over time.

Shane Mercer [00:15:36]:

You know, it helped me pay off this this this loan that I've got. I've gotta come up with a way to do it, and I wanna do it fast. Right? Everything always wants to be done fast. And so, hey. Let's build that that parlay, you know, that that lotto that lotto parlay, and and this will be my ticket out of here. And if this one doesn't work well, then the next one will or the next one will. And and, you know, I I think I'm glad that the Wall Street Journal is reporting on this because it does highlight this this this big issue that, hey. People are going to use sports betting as as sort of a quick fix solution.

Shane Mercer [00:16:11]:

And, PACE, you and I kind of know that that there's nothing quick about the success that comes from sports betting. It's it's a it's a long term thing, and, it's certainly not gonna come or is very, very unlikely to come from, those big lotto parlors.

Andrew Pace [00:16:30]:

Yeah, man. I mean, sometimes when I see stuff like this, I'm just like, god. We're so fucked. You know? I just I'm like like, if if this is how people are thinking, this is how, you know, we've sort of been almost manipulated into, you know, acting with not even our money. It's not even their student loans. It's not even your money.

Shane Mercer [00:16:51]:

Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:16:52]:

You know? Yeah. It's tough. Like, I I I think that, you know, the sportsbooks have been really successful with these ads, and and what they have painted. And I know that we, you know, are kinda on the other side of it and exposing some of that stuff and showing what's going on and all that. And then you you see this, and you know it's not a one off. Like No. I'm sure there's tons of students gambling on sports and and doing it in a way that is for the quick the big quick hit. And what's crazy about that style of betting is that people think they're either right or wrong.

Andrew Pace [00:17:28]:

Like, you got the game wrong, you were wrong, versus the expected value of the the wager itself. And, yeah, it's gosh. I think, you know, you see stuff like that, and you're just like, we're fucked. Like, what is this gonna do long term to people that are engaging in this space, in this capacity? Like, are they gonna go into debt levels that or have they already gone into debt levels that you you deal with now for the rest of your life?

Shane Mercer [00:17:56]:

And that's the thing. Right? They're here they are. They're already strapped with a ton of debt because of their education and and how much it costs, and then they're gonna bury themselves even further. It's just it's it's just it's so dangerous.

Andrew Pace [00:18:12]:

Yeah. And also too, like, in theory, that's someone that's accepted into a university, and that's the way they're thinking. You know? And it's almost like they think at the back of their mind, it's like, well, I will hit 1 eventually, or I'll get a real job that pays enough for me to deal with with this. I can remember, like, working in jobs where you thought to yourself, if I just got this raise, I'd be okay. And then you get the raise, and this isn't that's not even short term thinking. That's actually, like, working towards something. You get the raise and then you see what it is net of tax, and you're like, there is no difference to my life whatsoever, let alone factoring in inflation. So the fact that people actually think that you can do it this way long term is is yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:19:02]:

It's it's scary. And I think, there's definitely a culture of of promoting this, but that's also further solidified by the players themselves. Like, just keep going. The next one's around the corner, all that kind of stuff. And you kinda said, Shane, you're like, oh, you know, we know that sports betting success isn't quick. What I can say that is quick is from my personal standpoint and my personal journey is knowing what my financial struggles were and knowing where I was in that space. And not never, but next to never really having $2,000 of actual cash. So I don't mean cash in hand.

Andrew Pace [00:19:45]:

I mean, not having credit card debt and having positive $2,000 sitting in my bank account. I'm not saying that was never the case, but it was pretty much close to never $2,000. Wow, I have 5,000. Wow. I have 20,000. I could have never dreamt of having this much money at once without having, debt. And that might not be overnight, but it was over the course of a month or a season more, you know, a quarter where you go, holy shit. This is working, and that in and of itself is motivating.

Andrew Pace [00:20:29]:

So it's it's not getting rich quick overnight, but it is, hopefully, if done properly and successfully, something that you do really see this positive impact. So from from last episode until now, essentially, I did a a reset, and this can give people some perspective on the success that can occur, within sports betting. And it is I have to be 100% clear. It is completely different from what we're describing from, like, these kill off the student loans and and hit a parlay. Right? It's it's, it's high volume with with a low edge. So, you know, you're looking at ROIs sometimes of 10% or less, but with that volume, seeing that actually compound over time and and how how powerful that is. Right? So, when I did a reset, I before I did it, I my full unit wager was was just under $10,000 before I did it. And I was like, I just wanna get back to a place where I start small and ramp up.

Andrew Pace [00:21:36]:

So for a lot of people, this number won't be small, but I deposited $20,000, into, probably about 6 to 8 sportsbooks, approximately 2 to $3,000 at a time. Couple of the books still had balances in them. So but brought everything down to more or less $2,000 per book. Like I said, 2 to 3,000, so a little bit more. And, yeah, over the course of the week, I I grew that to $50,000. So there were some wagers in there that were higher than 2 and a half percent of my bankroll. There was a 2 unit call that I made last week that I personally had about 5% on, but I scaled in real time. So I got to some wagers where, once the once I was approaching that $40,000 range, you know, 1% of that that $40,000 is is $400.

Andrew Pace [00:22:30]:

Well, I was betting about 2 and a half to 3% as my unit size. So I I was getting in, you know, a1000 a1000 or so. And then, like I said, there there was a 2 unit call, and then Kenny had a 1 and half unit call. So on those bets, I was probably closer to, you know, 5 or 6%, but, which is high which is high. But I'm comfortable with that risk because I have a lot more than that $20,000 behind me. But, yeah, very short time frame and, approximately $30,000 of of profit and and, like, you know, a 150% x on my on my bankroll. I can't continue to do that once I hit the, I'd say, about the 200,000 mark. Accounts will have limited me by then, if not already have.

Andrew Pace [00:23:16]:

I won't be able to spin in 2 a half percent wagers once once, you know, you're hitting, like, I'd say, $2,000 spins is where you really start to get resistance. You might have to put in, like, 4 or $500 spins at 4 different sites. So you really start to feel resistance with your wager size. And that's where kind of once I get into that $200,000 range, I'm really comfortable with my unit size being 1% because I know I'm gonna be able to get, that $2,000 wager in. But, that's a journey that we can follow on the show, that I can continue to provide updates on as we progress through through the month if if time permits. But, you know, there's a whole other approach to this betting industry that isn't trying to pay off your student loans overnight. It is and and again, I'm taking a a really great week that we just had at inplayLIVE. I could just as well come here and and have lost those funds, especially with how aggressive I was being.

Andrew Pace [00:24:13]:

But there's a disciplined approach with positive expected value that, that can provide great results over the long term, and it it isn't money overnight. Like, Saturday, I was live streaming and and, you know, placed close to 40 bets, and and, you know, it was a full day. It was 12 hours straight. So as you know, Shane, it's it's, it takes time. But, yeah, it can be done.

Shane Mercer [00:24:39]:

Yeah. It takes time. It takes effort. It takes takes discipline. You're in a bit of a unique situation in the sense that you've done this. You've done this numerous times. You've done that that growth numerous times in the past. You also have the strategies behind you.

Shane Mercer [00:24:53]:

Right? It's it's, you you already know how you're going to be deploying that bank rule,

Shane Mercer [00:24:58]:

where and when, what that EV looks like in each individual wager, what that, you know, expected edge is. And, you know, it's interesting, guys. We were gonna be doing a lot of questions or sort of commonly searched questions on the show, and and maybe knocking off a couple of them. And we were sort of looking at some of these questions, and there are sort of things like, can you make money off sports betting? Well, yeah, we exist because we can make money off sports betting. The whole reason this show is on, is because we know we can make money off sports betting and how to go about it, and it's not the way that the industry tells you to go about it. There there's a whole other way behind it. And some of the other things are like, how do sportsbooks, you know, make money and that stuff, which we've covered pretty extensively. And, basically, they make money off you losing, you know, long long term.

Shane Mercer [00:13:11]:

But, you know, you've referenced something a couple of times, and I'm not sure that anyone searches this. And this is part of the problem out there. But did on anywhere on that on that list of questions, did I see, what does positive EV mean? Right? No. I didn't see that on the list of of commonly searched questions when it comes to sports betting. That might be one of the most fundamental questions out there that you need to learn and get answers to is what does that mean. Right? And I think that that, you know, that's something that, perhaps isn't talked about enough. And as you were sort of going through your answer there, I'm like, I wonder how many people out there listening right now. You know? At at least within the Imply Live community, I know many people already know it, but we have a lot of people who might not be part of the community or they're sort of newer to sports betting or they're they're recreational long term bettors, and they haven't given much thought to what does that mean when people talk about EV and positive EV.

Shane Mercer [00:26:38]:

Do you wanna give people a brief explanation?

Andrew Pace [00:26:41]:

Yeah. Well, I think whether it's like you talk about expected expected value or ROI. So, I mean, if we're that's return on your investment. The the expected value of a wager is if you take that wager regardless of the outcome, what you could expect in Edge over the house, or or what they have over you. So a really good example of that is that when it comes to sports betting ads and sports bets in general, is there's vigorish, which is the the the cut that the house takes, which then implies that you're gonna have an expected loss over time. Right? So the real simple analogy is you take a coin, you you flip it with a buddy, and we each bet a $100. And I bet on heads, Shane, and you bet on tails, and it lands on heads. And you gave me $200 back.

Andrew Pace [00:27:32]:

Right? So, that's a fair wager. There's no vigor, no commission. Whereas if we were to say, hey. Let's bring a buddy in over here, and and, he's gonna charge us, 5%. And, if if whoever wins, they're not gonna return the $200. They're gonna get a $190 back. That that's a spread and how how the the sportsbooks obviously make money over the course of time. So if we take that example of heads and tails and, we we keep flipping that coin over time, there's gonna and there is no commission involved.

Andrew Pace [00:28:05]:

In theory, we have a fair wager that's gonna break us even over time. So the the expected value is is is right at even at 0. 0. But but if if if if you bring that commission into the into the equation, our expected value on flipping that coin, it actually is an expected loss. Right? So we're gonna see a a 5% depreciation. We flip that thing 10,000 times every $100 that we spend. In theory, whether we won or lost, we're gonna be losing $5 on on every flip, regardless of which one of us actually won. Right? So when it comes to ROI or a positive expected value, it's what we expect to return on that wager with volume applied.

Andrew Pace [00:28:49]:

So if you have, you know, a 5% ROI on a particular strategy that you now have a decent sample size on, you'd you're comfortable placing that wager and having it had lost because you know that if you if you do continue to do that and and are disciplined with how you're deploying your money, that that, of course, you know, every $100 you spend there, you're actually making the the $5. So really when it comes to expected value is is how much you're gonna be making per dollar spent on average based on the particular wager strategy that you're taking. And when it comes to the, you know, the student loan story and all this bullshit, yeah, the sportsbooks are not letting you know that the expected value on your parlay is actually the worst wager you could possibly place. It's it's the expected loss is is massive, higher than any other bet that you could place. Yeah. And every leg you add. So what is what do people do? Oh, I'm just gonna add this leg. It's free money.

Andrew Pace [00:29:52]:

I'm just gonna add that leg. It's free money. Oh, these guys are a lock. The the I'll put them on, and and they can't lose. Every single time you add one of those other, positions onto onto your parlay or onto any wager, You just increase the expected loss of that wager with each click. So, even straight bets have an expected loss. But, of course, with the dynamic lines and the nature of sports betting, that isn't the case for all of the wagers being offered, which is why winning players get limited, which is why people like myself and now you, Shane, exist because you have profited over the course of of, over the course of time with with having a positive expected value for I would I'm not gonna say all, but most of the wagers that you place.

Shane Mercer [00:30:44]:

Yeah. And learning and knowing what that positive expected value is takes time. Right? It takes time to sort of figure it out. Well, you know, if if I'm a I'm I'm if I'm gonna put myself in the in the shoes of an average recreational sports bettor, you know, and I'm looking at tonight's slate of NBA games, you know, I'm looking at it going, okay. Well, you know, PACE told me that I need to bet on something that has positive expected value. How do I know what that positive expected value is? Right? Well, it it you're not gonna know. Right? If you're just an average recreational sport player, you're looking at the slate, you're not gonna know that, oh, you know, team a tonight's spread has a positive expected value just like that. You're you're you're not gonna you're not gonna sort of be able to kind of just make it up in your mind, or or maybe you think or have a feeling about it.

Shane Mercer [00:31:37]:

Right? You you need to you need to dig into something.

Andrew Pace [00:31:40]:

What what you should know then is if that's what you don't know, then you know that it's a a a negative expected value.

Shane Mercer [00:31:49]:

It's probably a negative expected value.

Andrew Pace [00:29:49]:

Negative ROI long term.

Shane Mercer [00:31:53]:

Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:31:53]:

And and then if you know that, all of a sudden, you just don't necessarily click it.

Shane Mercer [00:32:00]:

That's nice.

Andrew Pace [00:26:38]:

And I find that myself, Shane. So, like, give day to day, and, obviously, we're a lot of these professional sports bettors, all they're looking for is that pregame value, and and trying to identify those opportunities that you just referenced. But for me, I'm not doing that. So when I look at a slate for what's to come before it's actually on, I will be like, wow. The Clippers. Hey. Under Clippers, underdogs. Oh, jeez.

Andrew Pace [00:32:31]:

You know, this looks like a good opportunity. And that me saying that reminds me to not bet it. You're like it's like, alright, Andrew. Keep an eye on it live. Settle down. Do not bet this because you are making a bad bet.

Shane Mercer [00:32:30]:

Yeah. Yeah. And and it you know, over time, you would start you're able to recognize that and realize that, but I think, you know, obviously, a lot of average recreational bettors out there just don't think that way. They're not thinking about it. They are they're they're going down the title of, oh, the Clippers look like dogs tonight? No way. No. And they are placing the bet. Right? And the only way you really kind of learn to know where that positive EV is is by deploying a strategy that you've tracked and tested over time, and you can go back and look at those results and say, oh, yeah.

Shane Mercer [00:33:21]:

Hey. You know, this specific strategy in this specific scenario provides a, you know, 25 percentage or something like that. Right? And if you don't when when you know that, man, does it ever make things easy to be like, I'm I'm gonna hit this. You know? I'm gonna bet this. And you're waiting for that moment to to strike. But if you don't know it, then you're kind of just sort of lost in the wilderness in a lot of ways.

Andrew Pace [00:33:47]:

Yep. Yep. For sure. And and I think one of the things in line with what you just referenced is, data. So we've talked about tracking on this show quite a bit, but when it comes to data, that can be used in so many different ways. And a lot of these betting apps like what we're referring to with the the Apple sports app, they are providing us with data.

Shane Mercer [00:34:10]:

Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:34:11]:

So at a minimum, like, if you're a sports veteran, you're just gonna go click on a game. So I'm gonna go to Wednesday night since that's when this is actually playing. The Magic are playing the Wizards. Basic data. You have the record of the Orlando Magic. You have their position in the standings. And, potentially, the position itself can give you a really good indication of what that team's goals might be for the remainder of the season. So the Magic are 6th in the east.

Andrew Pace [00:34:42]:

Do they want to win games and make the playoffs? Yes. That seems like an obvious question. But their opponent, the Washington Wizards, they don't even have 10 wins this season. They're 14th in the East. Are they hell bent and overly focused on winning the game against the the Magic? Do they wanna win? Sure. But there could be other motivations in there from keeping stars healthy to draft picks down the road, and the list goes on and on. But then if you scroll down, this is just on the score, team stats per game. So they have points per game and where they rank on both sides, their pace, so how quickly they're playing, field goal percentages, and I'm not gonna go through everything.

Andrew Pace [00:33:20]:

I'm just gonna say the list goes on and on and on. So for you as a bettor, there are tools, resources, and information available to you that allows for you to start doing some potential statistic modeling that can, do some not predictions, some theoretical value based on the lines that are listed. And what you're gonna quickly find is if your model is in any way, shape, or form, accurate, you're gonna find yourself continually landing on what the spreads are. So you're gonna go, oh, I've got them pegged as 7 point favorites tonight. And then you go look at the line, and you're like, damn. It's minus 7.

Shane Mercer [00:36:05]:

Yeah.

Andrew Pace [00:36:05]:

So you're flipping a you're flipping a coin that's charging you that commission. But all of a sudden you might go, hey. The lines moved. Injuries aren't a factor, and bang. I've found a game where I think the line should be closer to about minus 5. And, and here it is at 7. And you go, okay. I now believe that I've identified some positive expected value.

Andrew Pace [00:36:28]:

I'm gonna place a wager. You wanna place that wager responsibly, You know, 1 to 3% of your bankroll max. Right? Anything higher than that could be considered over betting. I know I just went against some of the things that I said when I said I had a couple 5% bets last week. But when it comes to doing that, now you see you might win that game. You might lose that game. But when you track the results over the course of time and you have 100 of those behind you, you can see whether or not that is coming into fruition for you over the long term. And if the answer is yes, it is, great job.

Andrew Pace [00:37:04]:

Keep going. Scale up when and where applicable. But if the answer is no, you have to continually tweak and adjust to turn that into a yes or or, simply that might have been the knowledge for you to to move on from what it is that you're doing so that you go, hey. This this was fun, but this experiment just isn't working for me. And no one is really taking that approach in this industry. No one.

Shane Mercer [00:37:27]:

No. Nobody is. And, you know, you you touched on a lot of great things there. You know, one is that there are tools out there to help you. We've even brought some people on and talked about some of those tools here on this podcast. We'll continue to do that into the future to sort of, you know, just shed light on what's out there and how you can use it to identify that positive expected value. But at no point along the way, PACE, did you say, hey. I looked at my phone, and I thought so and so was going to win tonight.

Shane Mercer [00:31:53]:

You know what I mean? Right? And that's what that's what bettors do. Right? They think they look at their thing and think, I think so and so is going to win, or I think so and so is going to cover the spread. No. Right? You gotta look at your phone and say, I think that there's positive expected value in this selection.

Andrew Pace [00:38:07]:

Well Shane you said think, and people don't say think. At least, you're right. They're going to win. That that has room for there's a margin of error.

Shane Mercer [00:38:16]:

Yeah. There's something down there.

Andrew Pace [00:38:17]:

I thought they I thought they would but they didn't. Right? It's when you say they will win tonight. That's where things get really scary.

Shane Mercer [00:38:24]:

Yeah. Right? And then that's usually what it is. I think they will. Right? That's that's the phrasing that goes to and that's sort of the thinking process. Right? I think they will. And, you know, it it's it's it's just it's a it's a it's the wrong path to go down. Now you also talked about the fact that the sportsbooks don't tell you these things, and you'll never you'll never see a sportsbook advertising its tools to identify positive expected value, or at least most sportsbooks won't. And they don't feature that in their ads.

Shane Mercer [00:38:54]:

What they do feature in their ads are a lot of celebrities, and we've we've seen plenty of that. But guess what? In Ontario, they've now banned celebrities in sports betting ads. Paste, you were on the news, CTV news, talking to an old coworker of mine, Marella Fernandez, about exactly that. What are your thoughts on on the ban itself? And, you know, do do you think it's going to really kind of change the way people in Ontario at least see these ads?

Andrew Pace [00:39:24]:

Well, I've, the ban like, k. So when it comes to, the celebrities being on the ads, like, we've obviously played tons of them on the show. And then, obviously, we did the the SNL skit last week. And, like, you know, there's the Tom Brady, Vince Vaughn ad that was, like, super popular, and it's like you everyone can play except Tom Brady. And and we called that out. We're like, that's total BS and why why obviously. But, I mean, I am a big Tom Brady fan. But regardless of whether I'm a fan of the person or not, like, I'm I'm not sitting here telling you I'm a big Austin Matthews fan, but I know who he is.

Andrew Pace [00:39:59]:

And I'm like, oh, it's Austin Matthews. Like, that in and of itself draws attention to the ad the ad. Now with the the Brady skit, I we're both laughing when we played it, Shane. Like, we were smiling. We were laughing. Like, they're creative. They're well done. But what these what these ads also do is they tap into the following of that person and provide instant trust.

Andrew Pace [00:40:19]:

So outside of the betting industry, you know, if, if Michael Jordan were to endorse something, which I know he's a pretty quiet behind the scenes guy, but it would be a big deal. And if you're a big Michael Jordan fan, your first thought might be I have to get my hands hands on that or a pair of those or whatever it is. So you tap into the fans and following of that person, and you actually provide trust, to that person. So in in in the case of, say, an Austen Matthews, you know, you do have a lot of, of the younger generation who who think he is quite quite literally god. And they see what he's doing, and they go, oh, I can't wait to do that as well. You know, if Auston Matthews supports that, so do I. Right? So it's it's impactful, but I think just, you know, when it comes to any type of advertising, companies do it because they are getting an expected value. They're getting an ROI on their ads.

Andrew Pace [00:41:16]:

Right? And and that's why it is done. So I guess from the standpoint of Ontario actually diving in here and taking some action, I personally think it's a little bit ridiculous. I think that, you know, the the teams and the leagues and the broadcast and all the all that are still promoting sports betting. Why can't the celebrities like, why are they being the ones specifically that are are being told that they can't when everyone else can? From that standpoint, I think it's stupid, but from the standpoint of some action actually being taken by a regulator. So one of the things that we saw with the launch of Ohio when Ohio was legalized is they they're like, you cannot use that risk free bet. You cannot talk about that anymore. That is that is misleading, and that cannot happen in Ohio. I was like, shit.

Andrew Pace [00:42:09]:

That's cool. Someone's actually doing something based on what's going on in other states. So, you know, we're we're seeing some actions. So what does that mean for us, like, us and our listeners? Well, keep speaking up about the industry and keep going to the regulator about what's happened to you at the sportsbooks. We saw Gary Bettman and his reaction to DraftKings limiting players. He had no clue. None. So the the reporter that asked him that, he created awareness.

Andrew Pace [00:42:44]:

Where does that go from here? I don't know. But some of the stuff that is going on, these celebrities, these leagues, these broadcast, these people giving betting advice on sites that don't have successful betting credentials themselves to be giving that advice, You are going to have to go to bed and look yourself in the mirror. And when you see the student loan story and all that, you go, I created a part of that. I am a part of the problem when it comes to this industry. So for the people that succeed in the industry and want it to be here, I want it to be here, but I want it to be done in a different way so that people that go and make a bet like this to pay off their student loans at least know that what they did was stupid and didn't actually think it was a viable solution to their problem. So just keep speaking out and speaking up, and then we will hopefully start to see more and more change.

Shane Mercer [00:43:49]:

Yeah. And then that's all we can do is is keep talking about it and sort of, you know, keep promoting these these sort of same I ideals and values when it comes to this space and just sort of keep keep calling out the stuff that that isn't in line with with that. And, another show out there doing that, and we are gonna have the host of that show on next week is called circles off, presented by a sports book called Pinnacle. If you haven't heard about it, definitely check it out because they are a sports book that doesn't limit winners. And, you know, they're they're one of the few out there that is sort of operating a more level playing field. They also offer tools on the sportsbook to, to to help you. Real tools like, arbitrage calculators, and, and stuff like that. And so we're gonna have, the host, Rob Pizzola on next week.

Shane Mercer [00:44:45]:

He's the host of Circles Off, and we'll be talking a lot about, you know, where, he thinks some of the issues are in the industry as well. And and they kinda do that thing on their show. But, real really excited to to have somebody on from that sportsbook as well or at least aligned with that sportsbook. And I also just wanna mention, I mentioned this in our Discord pace, but we are in March. And guess what? Pinnacle offers both men's and women's college basketball live lines. So there are of now they they've been offering the men's stuff for for quite a bit, and they've expanded that a little bit. But over the weekend, I saw them roll out the women's college basketball lines. Very, very excited about that.

Shane Mercer [00:45:23]:

So for all of you out there, that know why I'm excited about that and you're chances are you're part of the Inphi Live community, but just know Pinnacle, women's college basketball out there, he won't get women. So really excited about that. Really excited to have Rob on the show next week and, happy to to chat with him maybe a little. We might touch on a little bit of college basketball next week, I think, Apace. Would it probably?

Andrew Pace [00:45:45]:

Yeah. I mean, it's kind of a big topic right now and something that's occupying a lot of our time, so I could see that happening.

Shane Mercer [00:38:09]:

Yeah. Alright. Well, till next week. And and for everybody out there, all of you sports bettors listening around the world, till next week, keep beating those books. Thanks for tuning in to another episode of Behind the Lines. Remember to like, download, and subscribe. We are on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, and everywhere you get your podcasts. Have a betting story or wanna be featured on our podcast? Drop a note in the comments below.

Shane Mercer [00:46:12]:

And if you wanna join inplayLIVE, use promo code 'BEHINDTHELINES'.