Episode 7
The Madness of March
On this episode of Behind the Lines, host Shane Mercer and Andrew Pace delve into the excitement and unpredictability of the college basketball tournament March Madness. They discuss the phenomenon of underdog teams and the dangers of becoming too caught up in the hype & lack of value in betting on the favorites.
They talks about the importance of dropping pregame biases when betting to avoid emotional decisions that could lead to chasing losses — emphasizing the importance of using unbiased expert picks and avoiding futures bets.
They cover the inundation of sports betting ads and how to approach the tournament without preconceived notions. Tune in to this episode of Behind the Lines to get insight into the March Madness tournament and how to approach sports betting during this busy time.
🔑 Key Topics
[00:01:45] Incredible year, fruitful grind, exciting tournament.
[00:04:32] Bracket contest filled, Houston wins championship.
[00:12:31] March Madness: Stay focused on betting mindset.
[00:19:40] Drop bracket bias, approach game with ignorance.
[00:25:20] Experts and predictive tool for March Madness.
[00:29:49] Power five schools face off in tourney.
[00:34:48] Futures bets on Houston favored 6.5 to 1.
[00:36:22] Bet on underdogs through the money line.
[00:40:34] Cinderella stories happen, don't buy hype.
[00:44:46] Ads bombard us, but vary in quality.
[00:49:39] Bankroll building tips for March Madness.
[00:51:08] "Join inplayLIVE for fun and success"
📚 Timestamped Overview
[00:01:45] Successful run for podcast group with intense time commitment, especially during college basketball season, but exciting and profitable.
[00:04:32] Podcast editor creates NCAA bracket with predicted winners, ultimately choosing Houston as champion over Duke.
[00:12:31] Be cautious when entering the March Madness arena as public opinion and betting ads can influence your decisions. Although filling out brackets can be fun, it is important to enter with the mindset that you may lose and to only bet responsibly. The first four days of the tournament sees the most money being bet and it is important to realize that every dollar being wagered is profiting the sports book, regardless of winning or losing.
[00:19:40] Drop bracket bias, avoid pregame bias and bet with less intelligence to avoid irrational choices and chase losses. Look for unexpected results and bet against public expectations.
[00:25:20] Podcaster discusses avoiding personal bias while incorporating expert predictions from SportsLine for March Madness games. The site offers a list of expert picks and predictions generated by a predictive tool.
[00:29:49] Power five schools face each other in the first round of basketball games, giving them momentum against teams like Kansas who have easier first-round games. Lack of previous matchups make predictions difficult.
[00:34:48] Futures bets on March Madness teams coming in, instant gratification factor, Houston is current favorite with good odds.
[00:36:22] Bet on underdogs with value in futures, rather than favorites due to high vig. Betting the underdog's money line in each matchup may pay better than betting on futures. Example: betting on the Bengals in playoffs. Avoid bias from betting on futures.
[00:40:34] Underdogs winning in the tournament is inevitable, leading to hype and bias, but buying into the hype is a mistake.
[00:44:46] The public will be bombarded with ads for sports betting, some offering prizes for placing bets, while others offer information without pressure to place bets. It's important to be literate in reading these ads.
[00:49:39] Tips for March Madness bracket: don't be beholden to it, expert picks are just noise, be cautious of Cinderella hype.
[00:51:08] inplayLIVE offers live streams and strategies for games, use code 'behind the lines' for the best deal. Have fun and share success stories.
🎞️ Top Quotes & Hooks
March Madness Betting Strategy: "My take on college hoops has just been this unbelievable gift that keeps giving...such a remarkable way to build my bankroll, grow my wealth and just have a lot of fun with an amazing group of people where we've just had unprecedented levels of success."
— Andrew Pace [00:00:47 → 00:01:45]
Success and Grind: "Has it been easy? No, it's been a grind. There's been a lot of time commitment, but man, has it ever bore us some fruit. It's just been unreal."
— Shane Mercer [00:01:45 → 00:02:56]
The Power of Community Support: "And that for me is the single greatest accomplishment that I have personally, I think, is that this group that everyone has communally created has that power behind it."
— Andrew Pace [00:03:15 → 00:04:32]
March Madness Bracket Predictions: "Power of the group absolutely cannot be understated."
— Shane Mercer [00:04:32 → 00:11:39]
March Madness Mindset: "Enter this arena with the right headspace. No one's opinion is going to sway me."
— Andrew Pace [00:12:31 → 00:16:40]
Sports Betting On College: "Well, how many people who are wagering on this tournament, wagering on these games actually know anything about these teams? It's not the NFL, it's not the NBA, it's not professional sports in any way."
— Shane Mercer [00:16:40 → 00:17:54]
The Dangers of "dumb money" In Sports Betting: "There's tons of that. For lack of a better term, there's a lot of dumb money."
— Andrew Pace [00:17:55 → 00:19:16]
March Madness Betting Strategy: "My single biggest piece of advice to the recreational bettor is to drop your bracket bias... Rather than having a bracket bias, which is natural... drop all of that. Let it all go and come at it with the lack of intelligence."
— Andrew Pace [00:19:40 → 00:24:03]
March Madness Experts Picks & Tipsters: "But I do want to talk about the people and the industry that's out there that reaffirms bias or creates the bias in the first place. And I'm talking about all of the expert picks that we're going to be seeing, and we are going to be seeing a lot of them."
— Shane Mercer [00:25:20 → 00:27:15]
The Problem with Sports Betting Services: "With services like that, one of the things you'll see is if they do have multiple pros working for them ... leaving you as the bettor to be like, what? And it almost shows that even the action that they're recommending has a balance to it, which just provides the sports books with profit."
— Andrew Pace [00:27:41 → 00:28:35]
Expert analysis on the NCAA: "That leads to a ridiculous lack of ability to properly handicap a game and a ridiculous lack of ability to actually have any sort of prediction of value."
— Andrew Pace [00:29:49 → 00:32:19]
Prediction On inplayLIVE’s Success: "Wow, kicking ass is what we do, so I wouldn't expect anything less than that."
— Shane Mercer [00:32:55 → 00:33:52]
The Hype Behind Houston: “A lot of people read that and they go, holy shit, Houston is going to win. That's what you're trained to do."
— Andrew Pace [00:34:48 → 00:36:16]
Betting on Futures: "You're making a very statistically poor bet on that side of any tournament...the moneyline pays better than the future is what I'm saying."
— Andrew Pace [00:36:22 → 00:39:08]
Sports Betting and Underdogs: "I think people, humans at their core, love a really good underdog story, and we're always hoping to see a great underdog story in this tournament."
— Shane Mercer [00:39:08 → 00:40:33]
The Danger of Buying Hype for Cinderella Teams: "Again, it's kind of the public perception and the mass bias when they're all swimming one way and then you feel them all start to get on that same side, that's your cue to run, right? So that's like buying bitcoin at 60,000 USD. That's your queue to run, right? When everyone flocks to it, that's where you know that it's time to flee. So keep that in mind with any of these Cinderella stories that they're going to happen. They're going to be there. And don't buy the hype once it really comes."
— Andrew Pace [00:40:34 → 00:42:59]
The Dos and Don'ts of Sports Betting Ads: "What I don't like about it, though, in this sense, is that you're not really offering me anything and you're not telling me what you're offering."
— Shane Mercer [00:44:46 → 00:48:02]
Tips for Winning March Madness Bets: “Don't be beholden to your bracket. Fill out the bracket, have fun with the bracket, but do not let it guide you."
— Shane Mercer [00:49:39 → 00:50:54]
🤔 Q&A
1. Why are underdog teams more likely to win in the NCAA basketball tournament?
Answer: Underdog teams are statistically bound to win in the tournament, and it creates a lot of hype and excitement when they do.
2. How can underdog teams win in the tournament if it seems unlikely?
Answer: It can still happen, like last year's St. Peter's team that disrupted many people's bracket predictions.
3. When a team gains a lot of public support and becomes a popular bet, what does it signify?
Answer: It might be a sign that the team is overhyped and due for a potential loss.
4. What is important to keep in mind when betting on underdog teams during the tournament?
Answer: It's important not to get too caught up in the hype and betting on them blindly.
5. What approach does the podcast host, Andrew Pace, suggest for recreational bettors during March Madness?
Answer: He advises recreational bettors to drop their bracket bias during March Madness and approach games with a lack of intelligence to avoid pregame biases and emotional decisions.
6. What is the best way to approach March Madness betting without preconceived notions?
Answer: It's essential to let go of biases and emotions and make rational decisions based on game observations rather than preconceived notions.
7. When is the busiest time for the sports betting industry during March Madness?
Answer: The first four days of March Madness are the most wagered days with the most money coming in.
8. Should people bet with essential funds during March Madness?
Answer: No, they should recognize that they will likely lose and not bet with essential funds.
9. What is the problem with biased expert picks for March Madness games?
Answer: Bias can affect expert picks, leading to inaccurate predictions and bettor losses.
10. How can SportsLine be used to make unbiased decisions for March Madness games?
Answer: SportsLine provides expert picks from multiple sources and offers a predictive tool that runs simulations of games to project scores.
❇️ Important Notes & Bullets
1. The excitement of March Madness upsets and avoiding overhyped Cinderella stories
Some underdog teams can surprise and disrupt bracket predictions
Popular bets can be overhyped, leading to potential losses
It's important to not bet blindly and ignore biases and emotions
2. Power five schools and challenging first round matchups
Illinois vs. Arkansas, Auburn vs. Iowa, Texas A&M vs. Penn State
First round wins for these teams could lead to potential success in the Elite Eight
No previous matchups make it difficult to predict outcomes accurately
3. Responsible sports betting and avoiding biases during March Madness
Being informed and responsible when seeing ads for sports betting
Need to avoid biases and make rational decisions based on observations
4. Maximizing value in betting and avoiding the futures market bias
Money line betting on the winning teams in each matchup can give better returns
Underdog teams may present true value in the futures market, depending on the situation
Avoiding futures bias and considering the current situation when betting
5. Expert picks and using SportsLine for unbiased decisions
SportsLine provides expert picks from multiple sources to choose from
Offers a predictive tool that runs simulations of games to project scores
6. Live bracket contest and predictions for the tournament
Filling out a bracket for the in-play live bracket contest
Predicts that Houston will win the championship
Houston is currently the odds-on favorite, but that does not guarantee a win.
📜 Full Transcript
Shane Mercer [00:00:11]:
Hello and welcome to Behind the Lines. This is the very special March Madness edition and I am jacked up for this episode. I'm your host, Shane Mercer. That guy over there is Andrew Pace, founder of inplayLIVE and a professional sports bettor. Andrew, I love this tournament. I love this time of year. I am so excited for this episode and man, has it ever been an incredible NCAA college basketball season. Just unreal. Give me some of your takeaways so far.
Andrew Pace [00:00:47]:
Well, I think that this week you're going to get a lot of takeaways that relate to who people think are going to win and how to fill out your bracket and what betting lines to take in the first round and all that kind of stuff. I think my take on college hoops has just been this unbelievable gift that keeps giving. That was not something that I focused on a few years back and in the last few seasons has just been such a remarkable way to build my bankroll, grow my wealth and just have a lot of fun with an amazing group of people where we've just had unprecedented levels of success. So much so, actually that Saturday's marathon with the conference tournaments, we went 100% on our total calls so on. One of the strategies that we'll wager on Live will relate to the over and under in a game based on circumstances. And yeah, we won 100% on Saturdays.
Shane Mercer [00:01:45]:
It was just saturday was nuts. But the whole week leading up to Saturday was incredible. And I would say since the beginning of this year, january to now, has just been an insane run for me personally. And I know for the group as a whole, it's just been really life changing in many ways for a lot of people with the amount of success that they've had, that I've had, that we have had collectively as a group. Has it been easy? No, it's been a grind. There's been a lot of time commitment, but man, has it ever bore us some fruit. It's just been unreal. And this is my first college basketball season with inplayLIVE. I have always been a big fan of the tournament, but I didn't necessarily follow the teams throughout the entire season. This was sort of my first year doing it and man, has it just been incredible. Can I tell you who's going to win the tournament with any kind of certainty? Absolutely not. But you know what? I can certainly tell you that the strategies that we employ at inplayLIVE will make us some money over the course of this tournament. So I'm just excited, man.
Andrew Pace [00:02:57]:
Right? Yeah. We've had an unprecedented amount of people hitting new milestones in the group. So their 1st 10,000 in profit, their first hundred thousand in profit has been rolling in like wildfire.
Andrew Pace [00:03:10]:
And like you said, it's a lot of work.
Shane Mercer [00:03:12]:
I'm sure you're getting lots of great emails.
Andrew Pace [00:03:15]:
Yeah, the beauty of what we do, obviously, is that you do have that guidance, right. You kind of have a team of people around you, both pros and non pros that are kind of in the same boat as you or at least have been in the same boat as you. And that includes obviously all the struggles, the times we lose, the failures, all that kind of stuff. So you can lean on that group, which I think is really powerful and that can include like, someone going all in and losing when that wasn't what you were supposed to do but you lost your head and you made a very poor gambling decision. You turn to the group and there's a bunch of people that have been there already, myself included. And then, of course, when you're winning, how to manage your money, how to handle the books, how to do all that kind of stuff. And yeah, like you said, it takes a lot of time and it's not easy. But what's amazing about it is that you do have that support all the way through. And that for me is the single greatest accomplishment that I have personally, I think, is that this group that everyone has communally created has that power behind it. That is something that I couldn't have imagined or pictured. I think that's on display fully right now with March Madness underway and the.
Shane Mercer [00:04:32]:
Power of the group absolutely cannot be understated. But with that, enough about the group. Let's get to the games, let's get to the tournament. And what I want to do here is actually fill out a bracket with you. This is the unofficial inplayLIVE bracket contest and very excited to be a part of it for the first time here. So I'm going to go ahead and get the screen recorded. Here it is. And let's go through this. So we're starting over here in the south. Alabama. Love Alabama. A number one seed taken them. Let's go through this. Maryland. Throughout the tournament or throughout the season here, Maryland's been pretty strong from what I've seen, so I'm going to roll with them. San Diego State, Charleston. I got to say I don't like these west coast teams all that much for the most part. I don't know, a little bit of a bias, something I kind of seen throughout the season. So I'm going to take a big underdog here at twelve to beat a five. Go with Charleston there. Moving forward here. I'm going to take Virginia on that side. All right, so Alabama. Maryland. Let's go, Alabama. And I'm going to take Charleston to keep rolling here. Yeah, I know. Crazy taking them over. Virginia, huge upset. Virginia just plays really slow from what I've seen so far. And depending on how the game plays out, charleston might be able to stay in it without the game getting too far away from them. All right, and from there, though, it's Alabama. Moving on. All right, let's head down to the other portion of the south here. We'll take Baylor. Creighton NC State I think I got a roll with Creighton on that one. No big upset there. I've been liking Missouri, so I'm going to take Missouri and Arizona, so I'm not grabbing any big upsets out of that. And from this matchup, Baylor Creighton. I think I'm going to go with Baylor Butler. Yeah, that's going to be a good game if that is what ends up happening. I think we got a good game there, so something to watch for. And from here, I think I got to roll with Arizona. And I think I got to take Arizona over Baylor as well. Alabama, arizona. I think it's Bama. It's probably going to be Bama. So let's go with Bama. All right, moving through here. Purdue. Purdue has got to move on from this matchup, but I'm not sure that they've got a lot in the tank. I think we've seen them succumb to the full court press and I think Memphis is a smart team that will be able to apply that and beat them and move on from there. All right, moving on. Duke over Oral Roberts. I like Oral Bob, but not here. Duke looks pretty strong this year, and I like Tennessee as well. All right, out of that, duke over Tennessee. This is a tough one, too, if this ends up being what we see. But this is tough. I like Duke. I'm going to take Duke. Moving on to the next portion over here. Kansas State. Montana State. I think it's going to be Kansas. We've got Kentucky, Providence. Roll with Kentucky on that. Michigan State UFC. I'm an unofficial Michigan State fan. If I had to pick a team that's in the bracket here, I'd probably pick Michigan State as sort of from Fandom. So I'm going to take them here, but I don't see them going too deep into the tournament and then Marquette. So moving on. All right, I'll stick with Michigan State just because I do have that affinity for them. And I'm going to take Kentucky over Kansas State. And I'm going to take Kentucky over Michigan State as well. I'm going to take Duke over Memphis and I see Duke going to the final four here against Alabama. All right, let's head over to the Midwest. Going to go Houston. I don't want to call it a lock, but it's pretty close to a lock, I think in this case, Auburn over Iowa. I think Auburn has been playing fairly well. Miami, Florida, Drake. Now this is one that I think I don't really know, and I think we could see another twelve upset of five. So I'm going to roll with Drake, Indiana, and Kent State. I think we're going to see Indiana move on from that. Then we'll probably have Houston beat Auburn and Indiana. Houston over here. Let's go through Xavier over. Kenny saw. Kenny Saw has been fairly good to us, though I got to say. I've developed a bit of a love for Kenny Saw in certain situations. Of course, Iowa State moving on from there. Texas A and M over Penn State. I like Texas A and M. I think that they're going to do well here. And probably Texas over Colgate. So we'll get a couple of Texas teams facing off here and I take Xavier and I'm going to take A and M. So from this situation we'll go Houston to Xavier and Houston moving on to the final. I think I might have just took them to win the whole thing here. I don't know. Anyway, we'll fix that up. We'll get there. All right. Kansas over. Howard. Arkansas. Illinois. Let's go with Arkansas. St. Mary's. VCU. You know what? Okay. St. Mary's it is over here. It's hard, though. That one's a bit tricky, I think iona, Connecticut. I think I like Yukon here. And Gonzaga. Grand Canyon. Hard to pick against Gonzaga in this situation. TCU. And one of the play in teams. I'm going to take TCU. Especially since that's a bit of an unknown right now. Northwestern over Boise State. Yes, I think so. UCLA over UNC Asheville. There we go. So not too many big upsets from that round of 64, but we've got a couple in there. All right. Kansas over Arkansas, yukon over St. Mary's. Gonzaga over TCU, and UCLA over Northwestern. And now I think this might be a bit controversial, but I'm taking UCLA over. Get Sega, Kansas, Yukon. Again, I think this might be where we see a bit of an upset. Going to go with Yukon. Yeah. UCLA over Yukon. Nope. Yukon to the final four. So here we go. We got Houston Yukon, we got Alabama, Duke, and I think the final is going to be a I thought Alabama, Houston. But you know what? Now here I am in the moment. I think it's going to be Duke, Houston, we'll stick with these two. And winner champion Houston. There we go. Wow. Game total. Who. Houston, Duke. What do you think a game total like that might look like? Maybe something like 73, 70. Nice tight game. And I got to take a bonus team. All right, my bonus team. Charleston, let's roll. Missing tiebreaker.
Andrew Pace [00:11:41]:
It's the total score combined.
Shane Mercer [00:11:44]:
So I'm looking at 143. 143. Total score combined. 143. There we go. Bracket made. So now, Pace, I've made my bracket and that bracket is going to decide all of my bets throughout the rest of the tournament. What do you think?
Andrew Pace [00:12:00]:
Well, the first thing I want to say is that if anyone wants to join our bracket challenge, we are predicting a five figure payout. So all you have to do to join is just DM us on Instagram. So we're @ inplayLIVE on Instagram DM us and we'll give you the details on how you can join our bracket. It's a great bracket to join, but what did you just say, Shane? You said you're going to let that predict all your games?
Shane Mercer [00:12:23]:
Yep I will predict all my bets now throughout the rest of the tournament based on that bracket. I can't bet against it. That's it, right?
Andrew Pace [00:12:31]:
So I think that there's a lot to talk about here. And I think that leading up to March Madness, and obviously, now that we're in it, with the Final Four having started and everything set, it is so important to understand the arena that you're entering as a sports bettor the arena that you're entering as someone who's following the tournament, filling out brackets, watching the games. Even if you're not a bettor the ads you're going to be exposed to for sports betting, the public peer pressure that's going to be surrounding you if you're in any sort of environment watching the games, what people will say to you from expert opinions to your buddy, from locks to they can't lose to this is going to happen. Houston will win this game. That kind of speak you're going to be inundated with. You are someone that if you're listening to this podcast, you have validated your interest in swimming against the tide. You've validated your interest in being someone that is unique in an industry full of people that are all going one way. You have an interest in a better future for yourself with respect to how you want to go about betting, even if it doesn't mean that you're a long term winner. You're listening to this podcast because you believe in the potential for losing less or becoming more informed and educated in this space. So there is no time that is more sort of focused on mass public action than March Madness. And there is no day that the books take more action than these first four days of the tournament. That includes the Super Bowl. So the Super Bowl is the most wagered game of the year. This thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday. Run of March Madness is the greatest handle of the year. The most money comes in on these four days. And it's not even professional sports. It's college sports. So you all listening need to take the mindset heading into this week of no one's opinion is going to sway me. No one can tell me that something will happen that isn't the way this works. No one knows what's going to happen. There's only theoretical value on the numbers or lack thereof. So enter this arena with the right headspace. And with that said, most people that are interested in March Madness fill out a bracket, and why wouldn't you? I'm going to do it, right? So there's this whole all this talk about like, oh, don't parlay and don't do this and don't do that, and we're going to talk about why brackets are bad here. But at the end of the day, there's an element of this that is legitimately entertaining, that's a ton of fun. As long as you enter that knowing that you're probably going to lose, you enter that knowing that this is for entertainment and not lunch money, mortgage money, rent money, grocery money, you can then do this responsibly and have fun regardless of what you're doing. So if your buddy says Houston is going to win the whole thing and he doesn't say they should or they're the favorite or they have the best probability to, but he says they will win the thing and you're like, okay, let's roll. And you put some lunch money, like some not money that you need on it kind of thing and you have fun. There's nothing wrong with that as long as you know that every single dollar that you're putting towards those types of wagers is profiting the sports book, regardless of whether you actually win or lose the bet. So I think just getting that kind of out of the way as we head into this amazing time of the year with the tournament is super important.
Shane Mercer [00:16:40]:
Wow, you said it there but I've picked Houston to win the tournament pace so they're going to win, right? You touched on something there though. Obviously I'm joking and I hope they win now that I've picked them to win. But I don't know. And I think that's one of the interesting things about this tournament. You mentioned the handle being as large as it is. Well, how many people who are wagering on this tournament, wagering on these games actually know anything about these teams? It's not the NFL, it's not the NBA, it's not professional sports in any way. And me as a sports fan and a sports bettor long time. This has always been something where I've really only paid attention to these teams come the end of February, maybe March, and certainly not before that, because I'm paying attention to football and I'm paying attention to basket like NBA basketball. And I'm not following these teams that closely. And I think that's very representative of the general sports betting public out there that not only are they getting in on the action, but they actually don't really know what they're getting in on.
Andrew Pace [00:17:55]:
Right? Yeah, I think that's a really good point and we talked about this a lot, not necessarily for the pod, actually we did talk about it on the podcast before the Super Bowl episode or during or after, whatever the case may be. But it was about the public perception of the Super Bowl and how many people feel obligated to make a bet because that's what's being thrown at you constantly. People want to bet on the anthem and the coin toss and things like that just because of the fact that it's available for that game. They think it's cool that they're betting on something that's so unique. Meanwhile, there's so many people that enter a room for the Super Bowl that go to place a bet that found out who was playing that day. Even though it is the NFL and it's the most watched sport, you do get a ton of that as well, that people are there for the party and the fun and the experience. So what that leads to is the book taking a lot more action than they typically do and a lot of action on markets or teams that people don't know about, and you just touched on it perfectly. That's the exact same thing for March Madness. You get a ton of bettors coming in that have never seen the team play or never even heard of the team, and now here they are filling out a bracket or picking them to win or lose a game or cover a spread or parlay them with 50 other picks or whatever the case may be. So, yeah, there's tons of that. For lack of a better term, there's a lot of dumb money.
Shane Mercer [00:19:16]:
Exactly. But the whole point of this podcast is we don't want you to waste your dumb money. We want you to figure out how to make a little bit of money over the tournament here. So what kind of advice would you offer to people who are maybe they're not pros like you, but they do want to find some success over this tournament, right?
Andrew Pace [00:19:40]:
Yeah, I think that's a great question. I was asked a question by Danny Funt, who's a reporter for a freelance reporter, and he featured us in the Wall Street Journal, and the line that he liked in our interview was kind of correlated to the question that you just asked me. I was referencing the Super Bowl, and I was referencing the pregame perception, translating to live betting and then being the biggest trap of betting as a whole. And what that was is you have a bias to a team. It could be your hometown team, it could be your favorite team, could have your favorite player on the team, or it could just simply be the fact that you bet on them before the game started. So you had a pregame bias to that team. Then if things don't go the way you were hoping for it to go. But you can't drop your bias. You can chase your bet down a rabbit hole that probably isn't going to win. I don't want to say it can't win, but you can chase it down a rabbit hole that lead to losses way beyond what you ever intended in losing. So with March Madness, I think my single biggest piece of advice to the recreational bettor is to drop your bracket bias. What that means is whichever teams you filled out your bracket for, where you have this potentially big pool or pod or prize or payout at the end. And here you are sitting over at the beginning of the tournament and Houston is going to win because that's who you picked to win the whole tournament. Or go to the Final Four and it's a part of your bracket and you see them live getting their asses kicked and you chase them down a rabbit hole that is just going to cost you a crap load of money. It's the biggest single mistake that bettors make. So rather than having a bracket bias, which is natural, so when you feel that inside you, where you go, oh, they're not going to win, sorry, they're not going to lose, we got to bet them they're not going to lose. Or they were the favorite, whatever the case may be, they were a 20 point favorite. They have to win this game. Drop all of that. Let it all go and come at it with the lack of intelligence. So come at it with the lack of intelligence where you don't know anything about the teams. So you were talking touching about not knowing anything about the teams. There's a running joke at inplayLIVE. I always say on this podcast, information is power. I always say on inplayLIVE as a joke, the less you know, the better. And the reason why I say that is relating to bias. So if you head into the tournament where you didn't have a bracket and you didn't bet on a team before the game started, and you flicked the game on and you enjoyed the whole game, but then you watched it from that same standpoint of going, let's have a sports book open and see if there isn't something happening in this game. That wasn't what the public wanted. That wasn't what the public expected. That goes against the grain. And then if there's a way to bet on that, that's where in theory, that value can pop and you can make some money. So if you don't have all of those bias, the bracket and the pregame bias, you can come at the game from the angle of, wow, that blue team sure looks good. They're playing way better. They're challenging them on the glass. They're playing really hard, full court presses. Their opponents, having a hard time getting across half court. They're getting lots of turnovers. As a result, I can see the other teams really noticeably getting frustrated. That blue team, I don't know any players on the blue team. I don't even know what the team name of the blue team is, but I know basketball, and I see that they're actually paying really well right now to score the next point, to win the half, to win the game, all these different things. Where the bias aside, you could go, wow, there's actually some opportunity for this blue team here, and that's where you go, okay, the less I know, the better. I don't have some bias to Houston or I don't have some bias to Duke or whatever the case may be that's causing me to act in an irrational way.
Shane Mercer [00:24:04]:
So I picked Houston and Duke for the final how do I now shed my bias? How do I let it go and sort of shake it off and clear my mind of that? Because I know I have them and I know that, oh, if they move on, hey, I could be looking at a big payday down the road.
Andrew Pace [00:24:28]:
Shane I used to recreationally enjoy going to the casino in my early 20s, so it might be 02:00 a.m. After a night out where I'd had drinks with my buddies and we're like, let's go to the casino. We're going to win $500. You get all fired up and excited for it. Once you learn to win, you stop doing losing activities and you stop engaging in losing behaviors. So you say, how do I drop my bias? My answer to the previous question should be how you drop the bias. And once you learn to win, you realize that the bias was here and not here. So in your heart instead of your head and when you drop the bias, it correlates with your new bias, which is growing the size of your wallet.
Shane Mercer [00:25:20]:
No, I think you've absolutely nailed it there. And I don't think I'm going to have any issues this tournament dropping my biases. But that's because I've been a part of inplayLIVE now for several months, and I've seen the success, and especially with NCAA College of Basketball, I've seen great success. It's been a lot of fun, and it won't be difficult for me to drop my bias in any way. But I do want to talk about the people and the industry that's out there that reaffirms bias or creates the bias in the first place. And I'm talking about all of the expert picks that we're going to be seeing, and we are going to be seeing a lot of them. They're going to be coming at us from all sides, and there are so many of them. So I'm bringing up one of my personal, longtime faves that I've used on a regular basis, and this is SportsLine, and they've got a whole list of experts. And this is basically what my March Madness research would have looked like in the past, is I would come over here to Sports Line, and I'd go through and I'd see what some of these experts are picking. And here we go. We got some live picks for games coming up over the next couple of days. Here Boise, Northwestern, PSU, texas A and M. And you get a write up on them and you scroll through and you can dive into them. And there are so many of these experts over here, so if you don't like one guy or you found success with another guy, you can sort of choose who you want to zero in on, and you can go through it and pick it that way. And then in addition, over here, they have their predictive tool where they run simulations. And if you don't want to believe a human. Well, hey, there's a big computer AI robot out there that's simulating the games 10,000 times and telling you what the scores are going to be. And that's what we have here. Look, projected scores for some of these play in games over here.
Andrew Pace [00:27:15]:
Do you know who owns that?
Shane Mercer [00:27:16]:
Who's that? William Hill. Oh wait, they're a sportsbook, right?
Andrew Pace [00:27:24]:
Yeah, they run that service.
Shane Mercer [00:27:27]:
Well, there you go, right? And here they are telling you, hey, look, this is what the score is going to be, guys. This is probably what it's going to be. I mean, look, our supercomputer has ran a simulation 10,000 times. Come on, how could it be wrong? It's definitely smarter than I am.
Andrew Pace [00:27:41]:
And even if that does return a profit, because I'm not going to sit here and shit on that. That's not what I'm here to do. But even if that does return a profit, it definitely is just helping when they put those lines forward, it's helping them balance their action if they need to. And yeah, giving you a lot of pregame bias and things like that. I've noticed, too. With services like that, one of the things you'll see is if they do have multiple pros working for them, pros handicappers tipsters, whatever the fuck you want to call them, you're going to run into games. Where you get 50% of the pros that are calling the minus side of one game and 50% of the pros calling the plus side of the same game, leaving you as the bettor to be like, what? And it almost shows that even the action that they're recommending has a balance to it, which just provides the sports books with profit. So whether or not you win or lose. Right.
Shane Mercer [00:28:36]:
Can you get anything out of those sites, though? Is there any value there to be had?
Andrew Pace [00:28:39]:
Absolutely, yeah, absolutely. I think SportsLine, you could throw in the category of our previous episode that we touched on with respect to some of those sites that their revenues based on clicking a link and then you losing. SportsLine isn't that same model. Right. They're a different service. But is there value there in those services? Absolutely. SportsLine can give you good information about line movement and theoretical value. You can also look at a lot of that stuff. But again, it is all pregame. So I think that type of literature in general, when you do sort of fully dive into it and you go, okay, I really want to do my research for, you know, a good example would be Texas A and M is playing Penn State. Is that who they're playing?
Shane Mercer [00:29:34]:
Yeah, Pace, you're right. It is Texas A and M. From what I see here, Texas A and M and Penn State are playing each other. We've got a ten seed versus a seven seed. And I can guarantee you that it's a lock that Texas A and M is going. To win.
Andrew Pace [00:29:49]:
Okay? So there's a couple of really good first round matchups where power five schools are playing power five schools, as opposed to some of these guys that scraped in, right? So you've got the Illinois, Arkansas, you've got Auburn, Iowa, and like we touched on there, the Texas A and M, Penn State as being three really good examples. West Virginia, Maryland as well, a couple of really good examples of really good basketball teams that are in the first round that, you know, if those teams win, they can really go on a run. So those teams could really you could see them in the Elite Eight without question. That's possible. Whoever makes it through that first round, those are big momentum building matches. Not only are they momentum building, but they're playing real teams. So you might get a team like Kansas, who is the only 20 plus point favorite in the first round. You might get a team like Kansas, who doesn't really get challenged in the first round. And then you run into one of these schools that has just had a real test and really slugged it out against a good team that's almost now more ready for a team like Kansas, right? So you can read up on all these games where you get all this expert opinion. You get all these stats and data about the way these schools have played basketball this season. But here's the thing. They haven't played each other, right? So you see this in college football and in college basketball. In the NBA, we can look back and we can go, okay, the Heat don't play the Nuggets a lot, but they still play them. The Heat still have to play the Nuggets, right? So we can look back on those games and we can go, okay, where were they? And even then, I hate doing that. I hate doing that. But I'm saying when you're doing your pregame research, if that's what you're doing, at least you can go do that with the NBA in college hoops, you can't do that. What are you going to look at the matchup from six years ago? So yes, some of these teams have played each other, but in general, they haven't. And that leads to a ridiculous lack of ability to properly handicap a game and a ridiculous lack of ability to actually have any sort of prediction of value, in my opinion. Now, are people going to be right that make me look like an idiot every single day? Am I going to be wrong all the time where I look like an idiot all the time?
Shane Mercer [00:32:19]:
Right?
Andrew Pace [00:32:20]:
But back to what I said before, there's only theoretical value or lack thereof. So I'm not sitting here going, okay, well, let's predict all those games. I'm looking at a service like the one you just talked about, and I'm going, don't let that influence you, that's noise. Just stay in your lane and focus on exactly what I just said. Whether or not the blue team is playing better than the red team and if there's value on the blue team based on that, that's what I like to do. So my biggest piece of advice is to enjoy the tournament from that standpoint and kick ass as a result.
Shane Mercer [00:32:55]:
Wow, kicking ass is what we do, so I wouldn't expect anything less than that. I think you brought up a great point though there about the teams not playing each other ever. But also too, I don't think what a lot of people realize is that not only have a lot of teams not played each other, but the team hasn't played a lot of other teams. Generally they play the same teams over and over again throughout the season. So they end up adopting each other's styles in many ways. Right. Or they have game plans that are specifically designed to beat the teams that they play all the time and then you got to go and match up against a great way to make money. Ain't that the truth? Yeah, it's nice when you can predict those kinds of things, but in this case right, we can't because, hey, yeah, we haven't seen them played before and you kind of have to watch the game to see how it's going to unfold.
Andrew Pace [00:33:52]:
Yeah, totally. Yeah. And there's a lot of things to really look at from the standpoint of heading into the tournament as well. Some traps and pitfalls that we actually haven't discussed yet. And I think one of the biggest things is futures. So futures betting. Have you done much futures?
Shane Mercer [00:34:15]:
No, not really. It's never been something that I've particularly been interested in, especially stuff that's like season long or anything. I'm an immediate gratification guy, which is I think why live betting fits me so well. But I would typically if I were placing wagers in the past, it would be on an event taking place that day where I'll know the outcome at the end of the day or at the very longest at the end of the week or weekend, but very rarely have I ever placed any futures wagers. Yeah, not a big futures guy.
Andrew Pace [00:34:48]:
So a lot of futures bets are coming in right now, right? A lot of futures bets are coming in right now. And from the standpoint of the instant gratification thing that you're talking about, I am a huge sucker for that myself. I rarely, rarely place futures. The last one I placed was we did a Division parlay this season that lost at inplayLIVE, but before that was the warriors to win the show last season and that was hugely biased and hugely recreational, but that one did actually end up coming through. But as far as instant gratification goes, well, this is instant gratification. From a future standpoint, the tournament is not a long tournament. It's a few weeks and we're done. Right. So it is instant gratification. Which is why a lot of people, they fill out their brackets and they place their future. So obviously from that standpoint, we're talking about Houston a lot. Houston is the odds on favorite right now. There's only ever been three teams in the history of March Madness that have or sorry, I shouldn't say in the history of March Madness. This is dating back to the 70s that have been as big of a favorite as they are. So you've got 64 teams heading into this thing. And they pay 6.5 to one or plus 552 of those. ₩3, right? So a lot of people read that and they go, holy shit, houston is going to win. That's what you're trained to do. If you know that information, which a lot of people don't know, but then once you get exposed to it and you hear it, you're like, oh, my God I gotta bet on that.
Andrew Pace [00:36:22]:
Right. But that's okay. There's a good chance that they're in the Final four. In theory, there's a good chance they could win. But the flip side to it is the 63 other teams and the value in the run that they could go on. So from the standpoint of futures, I think it's extremely important to recognize the lack of value that exists in the favorite side of those teams. So typically now, this is not always the case, but typically speaking, if you were to take the money line of the team that you wanted to win the tournament and bet a future on, and you took how much? You wanted to bet on that team, and you bet their money line in every single matchup that they had all the way until the end. So if you bet $100 and it paid 1.1 or -1000 and you returned 110 and then the next game it paid 1.5 or -200 and rather than putting 100 on it. You put that 110 and now you put it on that -200 again Typically you will get paid more from betting it that way in a single elimination style tournament like the NFL, like college football, like March Madness than if you were to bet on the futures market. And you have to know that those big favorites there is massive vig which is the cut that the house takes. Massive vig in the line in those money lines. But the moneyline pays better than the future is what I'm saying. So you're making a very statistically poor bet on that side of any tournament. Now underdogs, you could make the same argument that I just made. But there are certain futures markets and situations where actual true value presents itself in the futures line. As opposed to what? I was just saying. Depending on the market and what you're betting on, okay. Really good example. This year in the NFL that just passed was the Bengals. If you just took the Bengals money line throughout the playoffs. You got paid more money for them to win the AFC and win the Super Bowl. I know they didn't win the AFC or the Super Bowl this last season, but you would have made way more money than betting on the futures line at the start of the playoffs on them. So something to keep in mind for all of you betting on futures. And then the same thing I just said exists. You bet a future, and then that dictates your betting for the rest of the tournament and gives you that bias that you don't want to.
Shane Mercer [00:39:08]:
Yeah. Once you place that first wager on a future, or in this case building a bracket, which is almost like a futures bet, right. It's hard to get away from it and move on. But it's something you got to recognize and do. And I think a lot of people, too, you mentioned betting it every step of the way. Right. But then that takes more thought, more work, and the sports books don't want you to do that kind of work. Yeah, right. They want you to just throw that money down on that big future. So another thing that people are going to kind of be paying very close attention to, and this is probably the most, I guess, magical thing of the tournament. It's the part of the tournament that I think is what gets me so excited about it. And I think it's what gets sports fans generally, whether they love basketball or not, really excited about it, is the potential for big underdogs. Call them darling teams, call them Cinderella teams, whatever you want. We all love a good underdog story. I think people, humans at their core, love a really good underdog story, and we're always hoping to see a great underdog story in this tournament. How should sports bettors approach those underdogs?
Andrew Pace [00:40:34]:
Right? So it's really interesting because with 64 teams starting out the tournament, it's statistically impossible for some underdogs not to win. So there's always that team where you start talking about in that Hype train builds around them. Last year. It was St. Peter's. What St. Peter's did last year as a 15 seed was completely unprecedented. But what happens with someone like St. Peter's is they win the first game and they busted up everyone's bracket in North America. Your brackets are toast, Chow. St. Peter's did you so you hate them. You're like, I hate these guys. They didn't even have freaking sponsored. They showed up in sweatpants and T shirts. They didn't even have team gear. Right? No one thought that they could win any matches. So then you bet against them again, potentially they beat you again, you hate them, and then it comes around where you're like, oh my God, these guys are actually really good. And then you start betting on them and that's where their run comes to an end. So again, it's kind of the public perception and the mass bias when they're all swimming one way and then you feel them all start to get on that same side, that's your cue to run, right? So that's like buying bitcoin at 60,000 us. That's your queue to run, right? When everyone flocks to it, that's where you know that it's time to flee. So something to keep in mind that with any sort of Cinderella Darling stories is know that they're going to happen. They can't not happen. You can't have a couple of underdogs making it into potentially the Sweet 16. There's going to be that dog there and by the time they get there, there's so much hype around them. You're watching like these crazy shots of their tournament already. They go through their season. It's all celebration. Fans are going nuts. They're making their hometowns proud. And then there's going to be some crazy story from some kid on that team that you fall in love with him. Like potentially a heartbreaking story that he had to go through that makes on the broadcast that you watch before the game starts and you're like, oh, my God, I just love this team now. And then everyone's on them and that's where usually disaster starts to strike. So keep that in mind with any of these Cinderella stories that they're going to happen. They're going to be there. And don't buy the hype once it really comes.
Shane Mercer [00:42:59]:
But is there any way to get in on the hype before? Is there any way to kind of spot them, identify them? Do you ever get a feeling like, oh, these guys could be the ones.
Andrew Pace [00:43:11]:
I'm sure there's a pro out there that does pregame betting, that has a really good sense of who could make the run. That person is not me.
Shane Mercer [00:43:17]:
We're never not trying to pick those here, but there are, like you said, opportunities during the game when those teams are overperforming and beating expectations.
Andrew Pace [00:43:33]:
Yeah, absolutely. And that's something that you can see and I love that because that's something you can see in real time. We're going to be doing an episode on Chaotic models at some point, but supposed to rain in Vancouver today. If you're on YouTube with us, it's nice and sunny. So supposed to be pouring rain today. Imagine you could bet on right now, they're saying it's raining and you could bet on it being sunny. You can see it. There's a lot of similarities to that with sports betting. Where you go, this team was supposed to be winning. This team's supposed to be good in this game. They're not. I can see it. It's right there in front of me. I can bet on it, right? So it's not as simple as the weather.
Shane Mercer [00:44:16]:
Imagine that's a weather book. Sorry, I'm fading that weather broadcaster today. Yeah, that'd be fun.
Andrew Pace [00:44:30]:
I think my local book offered will There Be a White Christmas? And the odds were horrendous for yes. Horrendous. I don't think you could bet on.
Shane Mercer [00:44:39]:
You get a lot of public money online, something like that?
Andrew Pace [00:44:44]:
Exactly.
Shane Mercer [00:44:46]:
Well, speaking of some of these things, though, and again, getting back to the public, the public is going to be all of us are going to be bombarded with ads. The ads are going to come at us. They're going to be all over the TV screens. They're going to be on your radios. Whatever you listen to, you're going to be seeing them. You're going to see them all over the Internet. And for me personally, and I'm sure for many other people out there, and if you're listening to this podcast, there's a very good chance that you're a sports bettor already, and you're signed up to at least one book, if not more than one or several different books, and you're going to be seeing a lot of ads. So again, I'm just going to show you a couple that I've had here. I'm going to show you one that I particularly don't like. And this one came from MGM here, right to my inbox. Claim your March matchups reward, pick a basketball and splash reward. It's a good little slogan they had there. It pulls you in. But look, log in, hey, place your bet, and we'll give you a prize. And that's essentially all it is, right? Log in, place a bet, and we're going to give you a prize. Choose one of five basketballs to pick your prize and enjoy. And then they got all their odds and everything here, right? What I don't like about it, though, in this sense, is that you're not really offering me anything and you're not telling me what you're offering. You're saying, choose one of five basketballs and pick your prize. Well, what are those prizes? I don't know. What do I only find out after I place my wager? After I place my wager on something I haven't even thought about or haven't given much attention to or done any research on or anything like that. So anyway, this was one that kind of got me, and I was like, I'm not a big fan of that one there. Let me show you one, though, that I do like, and I'll tell you why. And I'll just pull that one up here. This one came from Pinnacle. And what I actually kind of liked about this one is that get ready for Selection Sunday. So I think I got this on Saturday. And they tell you all the teams and hey, who's going to be what seed and this and that, but they don't won. They don't encourage me to log in right away. They don't encourage me to place a wager. They're not trying to tempt me with some kind of prize or some kind of bonus or promotional offer, right? They're just saying, hey, it's Election Sunday, in case you forgot, and if you're interested, come check out our NCAA odds. Look, they're not putting them on here on the ad. Right. They're not sort of saying, oh, look at these odds and look at these numbers and that kind of thing. No, they're just saying, hey, if you want to see it, here it is. And then they're offering me a piece of Value latest NCAA predictions article. Now, I know, Pace, you would probably say, well, it's all noise anyway and people are making predictions and that kind of thing. And again, it's not something that I would encourage anyone to read in terms of take it as gospel or anything like that, but they're giving me something that could provide me with some valuable information potentially and then a whole bunch of responsible gambling messages and that kind of thing. So a very clear, stark difference between those two ads that I thought I wanted to share because we are going to be bombarded with all of these ads and I think it's important to kind of have a certain level of literacy when we see them.
Andrew Pace [00:48:02]:
Absolutely.
Shane Mercer [00:48:03]:
Yeah.
Andrew Pace [00:48:03]:
I think that's smart and take that approach. The other thing, too, you can do is if you're a true killer true killer. When you get those ads, you make sure that you have that book. The ads are like a checklist for you. You go, I don't have that one yet, I'm going to get it right now and see what they offer me that I can beat them on. That's a great way to look at.
Shane Mercer [00:48:21]:
It if you're not already signed up for the book and they're setting in the match. Yeah, well, you got to have the books to know how to take advantage of them.
Andrew Pace [00:48:30]:
Yeah, absolutely.
Shane Mercer [00:48:31]:
Is there any advice you would say to people as we get hit with these ads and any kind of suggestions for sort of how to approach them? Is there a way to take advantage of maybe some of the bonuses and offers that they're going to present?
Andrew Pace [00:48:47]:
Oh, 100%. The bonus that you just gave us from NGM, there was a joke. But if there's free bets and things like that, you can use that to make money for yourself. Absolutely. You can ARB out of those, like, sure, bet out of those at another book, even if it's a losing proposition. So if you had a $50 free bet and you place the $50 free bet, ensuring that it does arrive in cash, if you win and place that $50 wager at another book, insure yourself to actually turn it into some real money. You can do that kind of thing, which can be huge for bankroll building when you're in the one dollars to $500 unit size. Massive for getting you some a little boost here and there. Once you kind of hit 250 to 500, it's not as much of a boost anymore. But I think that those free bets can get you there for certainly early.
Shane Mercer [00:49:39]:
Stages of bankroll building. Absolutely. Well, with that, I think we've covered. A lot of ground here, Pace. If you the viewers, listeners, if we can give them maybe some general rules to maybe follow throughout the next three weeks, I guess just to recap some of the things we covered and you correct me if I'm wrong here, Pace, but one is don't be beholden to your bracket. Fill out the bracket, have fun with the bracket, but do not let it guide you. After you've hit submit on that bracket and the tournament has started, the expert picks are really just a lot of noise. You can use them for some information, but for the most part, they're not really going to help you too much and you're going to find a lot of competing experts. So not really a whole lot there. And when the Hype train starts rolling on the Cinderella story either look for a spot very early on in a very specific scenario where you can maybe find some value, but otherwise, don't hop on. And certainly don't hop on late. If that train is gaining a lot of steam, do not hop on late. Do you think we covered it there? Anything else?
Andrew Pace [00:50:56]:
Yeah, I think you nailed it. Just the big thing that I would say that's missing there is have fun.
Shane Mercer [00:51:02]:
Of course. Always. Well, how could you not have fun? That's what this tournament really is all about.
Andrew Pace [00:51:06]:
It really is the best.
Shane Mercer [00:51:08]:
It is a great time. So much fun. Well, with that then, I hope you have fun, Pace. I know we'll be having fun together on the streams throughout the course of the tournament. And the streams, if you want to know what I'm talking about when it comes to this, that is all part of inplayLIVE. So a reminder to like, download, subscribe, follow us on all the socials at inplayLIVE. But also, if you want to join the community, you want to find out what the streams are all about. You want to learn some of these strategies that we're employing during the games live while they're being played in the moment. Sign up at inplayLIVE and you can get the best possible pricing available by using the 'BEHINDTHELINES' promo code. That's all caps 'BEHINDTHELINES' and you will get the best possible deal. And to be honest, if you really commit yourself to the program and you learn and you come in with an open mind, you will pay off that membership very quickly. It does not take long at all. So with that, Pace, thank you. Enjoy the tournament. All of you. Have fun. Have a lot of success by following the tips we've laid out for you and we look forward to hearing your stories. You can always drop us a comment and reach out to us and let us know. And if you have a great story to share, whether it's March Madness related or not, please reach out because we'd love to hear it. So with that pace. We'll stay in touch. Let's keep beating the books till next week.
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👋 About The Host & Guests
Shane Mercer is the host of Behind The Lines and a journalist with nearly two decades of experience covering news and sports in Canada. He is well versed in digital, television and radio platforms. Shane enjoys the outdoors, sports, and spending time with his wife and three daughters.
Andrew Pace is a college basketball enthusiast who has used his knowledge to build his bankroll and grow his wealth by value wagering on games. His passion for college hoops has resulted in unprecedented levels of success for him and his group. They have even managed to win 100% of their total calls during Saturday's marathon conference tournaments. Andrew's betting strategy includes wagering on Live games and focusing on the over and under based on certain circumstances.