Episode 114

Secrets of a Successful Sports Bettor: "If you look at that data and you pretty much just follow where the money's going, you know, which books are and especially it's very market dependent. So don't just if you're looking back, don't just look at which books have money, which books have money. Look at the specific markets, and then you can just tell those."
— Elf [00:03:45 → 00:04:01]

Letting Go of the Other Side: "In my experience working with bettors that come from that background, they have an extremely hard time of letting go of the other side of the bet despite that side having a negative expected value. So they can't handle the stress and pressure of having a wager that isn't covered."
— Andrew Pace [00:04:56 → 00:05:16]

Viral Betting Strategies: "If you wanted to, you could free roll the minus one ten side with that price and just have a position where you're either winning a couple hundred or losing nothing."
— Elf [00:07:55 → 00:08:05]

Why the Martingale Betting System Always Fails: "So this is why the theory of Martingale, never will work for you, and you will always get burned. It's because you either, one, run out of money, or, two, you hit the table maximum where you can't chase your money down any further, and and that causes you to end up losing as a result. So it will work until it doesn't, and then when it doesn't, you're dead."
— Andrew Pace [00:09:09 → 00:09:32]

The Limits of Scaling Sports Betting: "But once you get above that thousand dollar range, especially when you're starting to look at the 5 to $10,000 range, you realize that there's a maximum on a lot of these books that will no longer take the action."
— Andrew Pace [00:09:49 → 00:10:00]

The Challenges of Scaling as a Sports Bettor: "And then at the end of that is, of course, that same bettor who can't scale anymore because you're hitting those maximums, and you have to come up with consistent betting amounts because you'll be sitting there on, you know, Pinnacle. They're willing to take 10,000. Bookmakers willing to take 5,000. And then you're like, jeez."
— Andrew Pace [00:11:33 → 00:11:48]

Sports Betting Strategies and Book Selection: "Why would I burn a book if I took this over at Bet365 when I know that I can take it at Pinnacle?"
— Andrew Pace [00:14:22 → 00:14:27]

Tipsters Called Out: "Like, to me, they're all one in the same, and and they're a dime a dozen. They're all out there doing the same kind of bullshit."
— Shane Mercer [00:24:22 → 00:24:27]

The Challenges of Sharing Sports Betting Strategies: "I think making sharp sports betting content is very, very difficult because, you know, once you educate you try to educate people, you'll run into books listening and patching stuff right away, or even worse, you'll educate someone who's really, really sharp with a lot of money who will just nuke that edge, make 10 to 20,000, and just ruin it for everyone."
— Elf [00:31:45 → 00:32:08]

How to Spot the Sharp Bets in 2025: "If you really, really pay attention and you look at line movement, you can know what the sharp side of games are without knowing anything about the game."
— Elf [00:37:23 → 00:37:32]

Sportsbooks Withholding Payouts: "I've been accused and not paid by sportsbooks because I'm a part of a syndicate. Shane Shane, you probably heard a similar narrative if it hasn't happened to you with some people in the group where they know we're a part of inplayLIVE, and they use that as an excuse not to to pay."
— Andrew Pace [00:40:47 → 00:41:01]

Sportsbook Secrets Exposed: "William Hill was overexposed to the outcome of a particular game, and they called the syndicate and sold off, their overexposure to them. And I just found that extremely surprising because the very reason that they won't pay one of their customers without evidence and I know it's without evidence because it's me, and it simply isn't true."
— Andrew Pace [00:41:22 → 00:41:46]

High-Stakes Betting Drama: "This guy has a $4,000,000 parlay payout if this particular bet hits, and my bonus will go from maybe the person's getting a thousand bucks, maybe they're getting $10,000, whatever it is, and they go, I have to remain profitable for this quarter, and they sell off the remainder of the parlay to the same syndicate."
— Andrew Pace [00:42:35 → 00:42:52]

The Importance of Softbooks in the Betting Ecosystem: "We've talked a lot about how we need those softbooks to to survive. Right? We want them in that ecosystem. We want them out there, offering those soft lines. We want them to stay profitable so that they exist, you know, because that that just benefits everybody."
— Shane Mercer [00:45:09 → 00:45:23]

The Toxic Side of Online Betting Communities: "The community is just they all hate each other so much. They would start someone would start talking about someone like, oh, this guy, man in the library, did this."
— Elf [00:49:21 → 00:49:59]

The Power of Calling People Out Online: "If someone said you were doing something on a show, wouldn't you wanna defend yourself? Like, you probably would."
— Elf [00:50:31 → 00:50:37]

Monetizing Social Media for Fun and Profit: "I pretty much just do everything I do on social media for fun. Like, it's a bonus that I get to monetize certain aspects of it in terms of sponsorships and affiliate deals. But, realistically, I'm just here for fun. That's the main thing."
— Elf [00:56:57 → 00:57:09]

The Real Key to Selling Sports Picks: "As a matter of fact, I think there's negative correlation between your skill as a sports bettor and ability to sell sports betting things."
— Elf [00:58:02 → 00:58:09]

Charisma vs. Calculation in Sports Betting: "So I would I personally think it's probably like, if you're if you're a math based person, you can really grind, then you'll you'll make more sports betting. But if you're charismatic, then you could make more sell of picks. You just gotta go all in with it, I'd say."
— Elf [00:58:51 → 00:59:07]

Mixing Business with Entertainment: "But it would be really fun to, you know, I don't know, get someone in the ring or or do something that that's crazy related to the elf show in the in the coming weeks here as we lead up to the event."
— Andrew Pace [01:02:38 → 01:02:49]

Behind the Scenes of the Elf Show: "The Elf show on Twitter spaces because it's, it's full of drama, and it's a lot of entertainment out there for for sports bettors."
— Shane Mercer [01:03:51 → 01:04:01]